Loading

After the last episode of La Niña ended last April, forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicate that the El Niño weather phenomenon will reappear during the second half of this year.

 "Since the end of the 2011-12 La Niña episode in April 2012, climate-neutral conditions, i.e. no El Niño or La Niña events, have prevailed and are likely to persist through at least the first half of the Northern Hemisphere summer (Southern Hemisphere winter)," the WMO said in a statement.

 "From July onwards, neutral conditions or an El Niño episode may occur, with a slightly higher chance of El Niño forming. A return of La Niña is considered unlikely," added the WMO in its regularly published bulletin "El Niño/La Niña today".

 The bulletin adds that, "based primarily on a build-up of heat in the deepest part of the tropical Pacific Ocean since early May, most climate models studied predict that an El Niño episode will form between July and September and will last until the end of 2012."

 The organisation also stresses that "scientific knowledge on the El Niño and La Niña phenomena has become an important tool for policymakers and planners in the areas of disaster risk reduction, water management, and the agriculture and health sectors." 

 Several Latin American countries, as well as the United States, had already estimated the possibility of a new El Niño phenomenon and its possible consequences. 

 In Ecuador, it was announced that a contingency plan is being prepared in case of the possible arrival of the El Niño phenomenon starting next September, while in Peru, El Niño is already almost a reality, with unusually high temperatures recorded at the beginning of winter (up to 4º C above normal). 

 According to the National Weather Service (USA), the possibility of the El Niño weather phenomenon reaching the United States and the northern hemisphere in the second half of 2012 has increased. 

 According to the WMO, “although many of the models that predict the formation of an El Niño episode currently indicate that it will be of weak intensity, predictions of intensity made at such an early stage are not very precise”… “Thus, the possible intensity of such an eventual El Niño episode is considered uncertain at this time,” the bulletin concludes.

Leave a Reply

es_ESES_ES